Dumb idiot with turnips

Here's your Animal Crossing: New Horizons turnip Guide!!

They changed the patterns a lot but luckily someone disassembled the game and found them

Big ups to @_Ninji who did the disassembly and put the turnips logic onto Github Gist!

The turnip patterns for New Horizons were datamined out and they're totally different from the patterns you would see in City Folk and New Leaf. Unlike the previous game, it's extremely hard to use a tool such as Turnip Wizard to predict when is the best time to sell (though there's tools that will get you a roughtimate), and the random pattern is gone (goodbye). So here's a quick dumb post I wrote in 15 minutes that attempts to explain the patterns and the chances of getting them

The New Horizons New Patterns

So there are 4 patterns that you can possibly get for a given week:

  • Up, Down, Up, Down, Up - Given a random integer x between 0 and 6 and a random integer y between 2 and 3, the price increases x times, then decreases y times, then increases 7-x times, then decreases 5-y times, then increases a random number of times between 0 and y-1
  • Decreasing, Huge spike, Random Low - Given a random integer x between 2 and 8, the price decreases x times, then increases 4 to 5 times (Biggest increase is 3rd increase, between 2-6x your island's buy price this week), then randomly selects lower prices than your island's buy price
  • Constantly decreasing - This one sucks. It constanly decreases and never ever gets higher than your island's buy price for the week.
  • Decreasing, Small spike, Decreasing - Given a random integer x between 1 and 8, the price decreases x times, then potentially increases 2 times, then increases 3 times (Hard to tell which is the biggest increase), then constantly decreases

OK but what pattern will I get?

When Daisy appears on your island for the first time, the pattern will always be Small Spike. From there, the pattern you get is determined by the pattern you had in the previous week. Here's a matrix to help you find the odds of getting a certain pattern.

Down: Pattern last week, Across: Chance of getting this pattern this week UDUDU Huge Decreasing Small
Up Down Up Down Up 20% 30% 15% 35%
Huge Spike 50% 5% 20% 25%
Constantly Decreasing 25% 45% 5% 25%
Small Spike 45% 25% 15% 15%

There's more details but uhhhh

I'll probably write up more about it when I can actually get more coherent thoughts together, for now enjoy this brief overview enjoy!